Fight Insight

In some ways, this boxing match can be viewed as the "losers bracket" of the lightweight vision. Let me make this clear though: neither fighter is a loser per se, but the fact remains that both were handed serious beatdowns in their most recent fights. Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz (33-1, 17 KO) was battered and bloodied for twelve rounds by current lightweight champion Nate "The Galaxxy Warrior" Campbell earlier in the year.

Michael "The Giant" Katsidis (23-1, 20 KO) was reduced to a competitive punching bag against old, yet slick Joel "El Cepillo" Casamayor just two weeks after Diaz had lost to Campbell. Although both fights were somewhat competitive, they exposed each fighter’s flaws. What do these flaws tell us about this fight?

There is actually no shame in Juan Diaz’s first career loss coming to Nate Campbell. In Campbell, he was facing one of the biggest and strongest lightweights in the division. Sure, Diaz had overwhelmed Acelino "Popo" Freitas and Julio Diaz with his relentless offense last year, stopping both men in the process. However, the buck stopped with Campbell, who was fighting as if his life depended on it.  Backed by years of big fight experience fighting the likes of Almazbek Raiymkulov aka "Kid Diamond" and Casamayor, Campbell matched Diaz’s high punch output early, and used his physical strength to rough him up in the championship rounds. I am sure Katsidis’s handlers have taken note.

Michael Katsidis also should not be embarrassed by his first career loss to the well-respected Joel Casamayor.  El Cepillo can be slicker than a can of paint covered in baby oil, but his ability to hurt Katsidis was very shocking.  While Katsidis had success in spots by crowding and rushing Casamayor, he also paid a heavy price.  He walked into a bevy of well-timed counter-punches, which ultimately led to him being stopped in round 10.  I am sure Diaz’s handlers have taken note.

I have taken notes as well.  Based on what I have jotted down, this fight is very simple.  Diaz throws a lot of punches, but does not hit hard.  Katsidis takes a lot of punches, but hits hard.

The verdict: Diaz wins via entertaining, split decision. Good offense beats bad defense more often than not.

The answer to the question is a long story, but could also be told as a short one. Because I like being difficult, I’ll give you the long story first. 

Crappy decisions have not helped the sport’s popularity.  Who could forget the criminal decision loss suffered by Roy Jones, Jr. at the Seoul Games in ‘88? Hard-to-follow scoring rules add to the confusion.  An electronic scoring system registers a point whenever three or more judges press the button for one boxer within a second of each other.  If you think that this is stupid, then you and I have something in common. 

The biggest culprit is probably the television networks. Is it just me, or does it seem that boxing matches are only on when you are at work or yanking the cover from your significant other in the wee hours of the night?  The scheduling may have changed a little, but I did happen to catch an awful heavyweight match on the treadmill today during my lunch break at work! 

A TV exec could probably counter my finger-pointing, with "no one really cares about Olympic Boxing because many top athletes are playing other sports, resulting in sub-par American fighters."  I guess it’s hard hard to market fighters who don’t win gold. They would also say that the decline of professional boxing has hurt the popularity of the amateur ranks. I’d be hard-pressed to argue.

The short story is that many People Hate Boxing. It’s actually a long story, but you know what I mean!

I must admit, this is really a tough fight to call. And it’s not because I am a native New Yorker who can’t stand to see another New York City guy lose.  It’s tough to call because both Zab Judah (36-5, 25 KOs) and Joshua Clottey (34-2, 20 KOs) are good, yet inconsistent.  The key to this fight will be consistency, or better yet, the lack thereof.

We all know what Brooklyn’s-own Zab Judah is capable of - good, bad and ugly.  "Good Judah" is the fighter who displayed uncanny hand speed and power in destroying Cory Spinks for the undisputed welterweight title in Spinks’s hometown.  "Bad Judah" is the man who gave away the same title in his own backyard to journeyman Carlos Baldomir.  And "ugly Judah" is the guy who nearly got disqualified in a loss to Floyd Mayweather nearly two years ago.

Fighting out of the "Boogie Down" Bronx, by way of Ghana, Clottey is the more consistent fighter of the two.  He has an airtight defense, a seemingly impenetrable chin, and a very methodical, counter-punching style.  However, he has also shown a knack for losing focus in big fights (against Carlos Baldomir and Antonio Margarito).  Against Baldomir, he was disqualified in a fight that he was dominating.  Against Margarito, he was winning early but eventually went into a defensive shell.  He and his handlers claim a hand injury (which may be true), but I also think Margarito’s relentless pressure had something to do with it. You don’t believe me, just ask Miguel Cotto (ouch).

According to Webster’s Dictionary, consistency is marked by harmony, regularity, or steady continuity.  Look for the man with the steadier chin, defense and stamina to win an entertaining 12-round scrap.  That man is Joshua Clottey.

As I sat back and finished the crow that I began eating at the beginning of the final round (11) of the fight, I started to wash it down with a Corona with lime. I was wrong in saying that Cotto Will Defeat Margarito Easier Than Expected, but I do not care. For my "friends" who left me comments that my prediction would be wrong, bask in the glory of Margarito’s stirring victory (TKO 11). You earned the right to brag, and I hope you even made a pretty penny by betting on it.

But the story is not about you or I. It’s about Antonio Margarito and Miguel Cotto, who showed us that the heart of boxing is still beating. And from what I saw I believe ‘em. OK, the cheesy Huey Lewis & the News semi-rendition aside, there were no losers tonight.

Israel Vazquez-Rafael Marquez III make room, Margarito-Cotto is now the leading candidate for fight of the year.

OK, let me go finish my Corona.

Earlier in the year when this fight was originally signed, my assumption was that it would easily challenge the rematches between Israel Vazquez-Rafael Marquez and Manny Pacquiao-Juan Manuel Marquez for fight of the year honors. However, as the battle for welterweight supremacy quickly approaches, I increasingly see Miguel Cotto (32-0, 26 KOs) as a strong favorite to win this fight. But it does not stop there. I even think he’s going to knock Antonio Margarito (36-5, 26 KOs) out.

Before you call me crazy, hear me out first. It all comes down to competition.  More importantly, how each man has fared against that competition to-date.

Cotto gets the "competitive" edge in my book. He owns dominant wins over "then undefeated" contenders like the fleet-footed Paul Malignaggi (21-0),  the power-punching Ricardo Torres (28-0), and the slick-boxing Carlos Quintana (28-0). These wins were followed by defining victories against a couple of "A-list" fighters - "Super" Zab Judah and "Sugar" Shane Mosley. 

Margarito’s resume is nothing to toss into the trash heap, but it simply does not match Cotto’s. Sure, he’s handed powerful Kermit "the Killer" Cintron his only two losses, and he made Andrew "Six Heads" Lewis see seven heads when they fought several years ago.  However, I consider those two guys to be "B-list" fighters. When Margarito has stepped up in class, he has had very mixed results. He lost decisions (albeit close ones) to current welterweight and super welterweight titlists Paul "the Punisher" Williams and Daniel Santos, respectively. But, I can live with those losses.

The one fight that stands out to me is the Joshua Clottey fight.  Although Margarito won, that fight gives me a glimpse of how he will be troubled greatly by Cotto.  Like Cotto, Clottey is a well-schooled boxer-puncher, with unusual physical strength at this weight.  He has a tighter defense than Cotto, but he is not as dynamic of an offensive fighter. Even so, he was able to land power shots at will against Margarito before suffering an apparent hand injury in the middle of the fight.

Margarito showed a lot of mental fortitude in weathering the early Clottey onslaught, but will not be as lucky when he meets Miguel Cotto in two weeks.  If Clottey had Margarito swimming in deep water, look for Cotto to catch him with hooks and reel him in.  As a matter of fact, expect the hooks to come from the left.  After that, it will be over.

Miguel Cotto TKO 10 Antonio Margarito