In all honesty, I never thought the WBC heavyweight title match between champion Oleg "The Big O" Maskaev (34-5, 26 KOs) and Samuel "The Nigerian Nightmare" Peter (29-1, 22 KOs) would ever take place. When the fight was postponed last October, I went as far as to accuse Oleg Maskaev of ducking Samuel Peter. Now that the fight is taking place, you probably think that I am eating my words. Not only have I never actually tasted words, I do not feel it’s appropriate in this case. The only reason this fight is taking place is because the WBC actually forced the Maskaev team to face the mandatory challenger (Peter) or risk being stripped of their belt.
Now that I have cleared that up, my fight pick should not surprise you. Before I go into my brief fight breakdown, I would like to make it clear that I do not question Maskaev’s heart. Any man who has fought powerful punchers like Oliver McCall, David Tua, and Hasim Rahman (twice) clearly is no coward. What I do question is his ability to win this fight based on the punching power and aggressive style of his opponent, but more importantly, his own soft chin (all of his five losses have been by knockout).
I see the fight ending within eight rounds, courtesy of a smashing Peter left hook to the jaw. Look for Maskaev to be put to sleep and experience the sixth "nightmare" of his career.
Although Maskaev showed grit and determination in rallying to stop the erratic Hasim Rahman in the final round of their rematch nearly two years ago, his weak competition leading up to that fight tells me that his handlers are hiding something. That something is his chin. Luckily for Maskaev, the likes of Quinn Navarre, Livin Castillo, and Sinan Samil Sam were unable to exploit this weakness.
Sam Peter, on the other hand, has fought the likes of Wladimir Klitschko (decision loss), James Toney (two decision wins) and Jameel McCline (decision win) over a similar time frame. Peter has been bloodied, dropped, wobbled and out-slicked at many points in these encounters. However, he has also learned more in these fights than most fighters have learned in an entire career. I see the fight ending within eight rounds, courtesy of a smashing Peter left hook to the jaw. Look for Maskaev to be put to sleep and experience the sixth "nightmare" of his career.
Agreed, and as you point out, Peter is the one with all the heart and chin. Because he is a big hitter, folks tend to focus on his “aggression” as the key aspect to his victories, and indeed, this is the primary component.
But, let us not forget that he too has been hurt, bloodied and wobbled, as you say, and there is NOTHING in the Oleg Maskaev arsonal that will ever do MORE than hurt, bloody or wobble Peter, and even that is doubtful. Therefore, we are left with the effective aggressor, versus the somewhat sloppy, aging, static (there to hit all day) and often confused Maskaev.
This fight only goes the distance proportionate to the clinging, and hugging skills of Oleg, who will hang on, at MOST, for dear life and make it to a 12-round decision loss. If he doesn’t bring the “clench”, Maskaev finds a spot on the canvas to rest upon through the count.
HAHAHA, excellent analysis KCelt…you should write in more often. 🙂 I agree obviously, but you do raise an interesting alternative outcome…the dreaded hug-fest/wrestling match over 12 rounds. I am trying to ignore that terrible possibility, for hope that if I don’t think about it, it won’t happen. Does that make sense? lol
To be fair, Oleg has given us the better highlight reels. Somehow, I think he will again in this fight Saturday.
Peter fought a slick Toney twice, so I think he will be smart enough to step back and fire, each time Oleg tries to tangle up.
The only thing about Maskaev that has IMPROVED the last few years, oddly enough, is his chin, apparently. My guess is, Peter wastes no time with early round “feeling out” and instead goes Hiroshima on Maskaev to end it within SIX !
Quote me….I’m out.
Hey, don’t go too fast right there…Maskaev’s chin hasn’t gotten better…excluding Rahman, he’s fought people who can’t really punch. We both agree that that changes on Saturday. Poor guy.