This has blowout written all over it. Miguel Cotto (34-1, 27 KOs)Â has split his last two big fights. His blood-letting at the mischievous hands of Antonio Margarito took a heavy toll. His narrow, bloody win against Joshua Clottey seemed to confirm suspicions that the Margarito fight had permanently tainted him.
Manny “Pac Man” Pacquiao (49-3-2, 37 KOs) is sitting on top of the boxing world. He first moved up to lightweight to obliterate over-matched titlist David Diaz. He then jumped two divisions to welterweight to thoroughly embarrass the Golden Boy, Oscar De La Hoya. And most recently, he sent chills through the spines of even the most sadistic onlookers, with his savage starching of Ricky Hatton.
Cotto appears to be on his way down while Pacquiao is flying higher than the stuff that Joaquin Phoenix appears to be on. However, things aren’t often as they appear. Despite Pacquiao’s recent highs and Cotto’s recent lows, I see this fight as a toss-up.
Here’s the breakdown, utilizing the Boxing Fight Predictor scoring system.
I’ll go against conventional wisdom and predict that this fight goes the distance. However, like most fans, I expect the fight to be 1) highly-entertaining and that 2) Manny Pacquiao will emerge victorious in decisive fashion in two weeks.
jack says
i know this question is in no way based on this post but i was just wondering what you think pacmans chances are against mayweather. or your views
Ja Dawson says
@jack, man, I guess you are favoring Pac Man in the Cotto fight, heh? lol That being said, I think Mayweather decisions Pacquiao, and could stop him late if he tried to, but he almost never does (try to finish opponents, and risk leaving himself open).
Erik says
I agree Ja. Pacquiao’s style is what Mayweather likes the come forward type which Floyd can counter all day. I see it like this: if Marquez, who is a great counter puncher, can land against Pacquiao what makes anyone think the much bigger, faster and slicker Floyd won’t be able to. Floyd by decision in a sparring match.
Ja Dawson says
@Erik…that’s kinda what I see E; thanks for writing.
jack says
that you say that yes i am favouring pacman do yo think cotto can trouble pac in this fight
Ja Dawson says
@jack, cotto will trouble him, just not enough to win (i think). but it by NO MEANS is a cakewalk for pac-man.
jabbo says
yuo know, cotto is truly one of my favorite fighters. Cotto
‘s chin is no cream-fillled donut either(cotto-mosley), the boy can hitt and can take it too, promblem is however, cotto is like tightly sealed canned preserved. Shane Mosley loosened his lid, Margarito opend the top, and Joshua Clottey exposed the contents. Pac-Man will certainly “eat em up” I see one problem for Miguel in this fight, too many punches coming from too many different directions. Manny by decision.
John G says
Cotto all the way!With a 9th round TKO.I think Manny’s streak ends here! Its going to be Cotto vs Mayweather in 2010
Ja Dawson says
Anything can happen, true dat.
Cotto vs Pacquiao says
I agree. I am expecting a one hell of a fight.
jabbo says
anything can happen…..wow, let’s savior that for a moment… You’re married to Gertrude Magilacutty for the pass 10 ten years, she a rather plain, thick, round and overall nothing to write home about. The fact is however, you love her and you come home to her awaiting arms every night, Given the fact that “anything could happen”, maybe tonight when you get home, instead of the not-so-lovely miss Gertrude awaiting you’re embrace as you enter your bedroom on this night you hear a familiar voice welcoming you into the room, the voice that you’ve many times before although not in your bedroom. It sounds like… wait a minute …. can it be? yeah definately, Thats Jennifer Lopez! wow what a treat! well anything “could” happen. Let’s be real guys, what are the chances.
Erik says
Well said Jabbo! I think Manny will stop him from accumulation of punches. Since Manny punches from all angles, Cotto will think he is fighting two Mannys in there!
Eli says
I see Cotto stopping Manny early I feel that Manny will be reckless and get caught early and weather the storm for a round or two and Cotto stops him in the 5th. Cotto has all the tools to solve the Paquiao puzzle and he will tonight. His timing is incredible and his power will be felt by Manny. Manny’s speed will not be a factor. Blue print to beating Manny is in the Marquez fights and Cotto is going to utilize that strategy. Cotto is a smarter boxer, stronger, quicker, has more power than Marquez and he can also make brilliant adjustments during the fight. The only x factor would be if Manny cuts Cotto early but I don’t see him tagging him. Maybe a headbutt is more probable. I just see Cotto coming out victorious tonight in a shocking fight in 5.
Ja Dawson says
@jabbo….I am on the floor rolling right now…let’s get ready to RUMBLE!!!!
Ja Dawson says
@Eli: Cotto is smarter than Marquez…not sure many folks would co-sign that statment. Also, that Cotto’s quicker than Marquez? Again doubtful. He is stronger and more powerful, but speed and skills typically win in most fights, i.e. superfights. Look for Pacquiao to exploit these all-important advantages.
jani says
that’s funny that htis article undermines manny’s strength and power…. just like every one of his opponents did, but obviously he’s stronger and more powerful than all of them!!!!
jabbo says
Anybody looking for a slightly used trainer, wow! I seriously think it’s time for Sir Cotto to start looking for a qualified trainer and give up the cheering section. The big challenge for a skilled trainer in Miguel’s case is going to be developing a fight-style for the punch-shy Cotto. I sincerly expacted the out come of that fight, what I didn’t anticipate however was how soon Cotto would loose his will to fight. I’ve been in and around fights of all kinds throught out my life and the one thing that always holds true is when a fighter gets his “spirit broken” it’s sad. All the training, the nutrition, the encourging in the world just won’t work, it’s like having a hot new farrari with a shot engine, it can stand on the fact that it’s a farrari for only so long but when it’s time to perform….nuthin’. Fortunately, the general boxing public has very short memories and for that reason Cotto will gey a few more fights and maybe one semi-big one, I mean the name Cotto will still look good in a young fighter’s victory colum but what shame. Ban Margarito from boxing for life!
Ja Dawson says
@jani isn’t about raw power; speed is often power, and Pacquiao has other-worldly speed, combined with very strong legs and unusually large fists for his size. Just because someone is naturally stronger (which I still believe that Cotto is), we all know that doesn’t necessarily mean it will translate in a boxing match…that’s why it’s not a weight-lifting contest…and why I still had Pacquiao winning impressively (shoot, if Bayliss hadn’t stopped it, my prediction woulda been exactly right! 😉
Ja Dawson says
jabbo…well-put, if Clottey showed any iota of initiative, he coulda exacted the same type of outcome on Cotto, but he didn’t. Let’s not discount Pac Man though. I do agree with you that Margarito’s cheating/criminal acts probably ruined Cotto.
jabbo says
@jani:
Jani, there’s an old saying boxing “it’s the punches you don’t see coming that does the most damage”. Manny throws a lot of those. It’s certainly that Manny is much stronger than any of his opponents,in fact, I believe even marquez was problably stronger than Manny the differcenc is however, unless a fighter posseses Extrodinary fighting skills and superior instincts it will very difficult to solve the Freddy Roach cultivated bioxing style of the pac-man. Manny is an exceptional fighter and that’s for sure, but Manny’s true strenght is what most trainers would consider a “fault” in any new fighter. Pac Man is problably one of moswt unorthodoxed fighters in the sport, he throws punches from stances that and angles that are supposed to negate a fighter’s power but for Manny it seems very natural. Listen what Manny and Freddy does “works” period and I see only one fighter in the vwelterweight division that has the gifts to nutralize Manny’s style and that’s the Money- Man himself Floyd Mayweather, I also give Sugar-Shane a very good shot due to his power, ability to adpt ,strong chin and fearlessness in the ring.
Ja Dawson says
@jabbo…I agree with you dead-on re: Pacquiao. He’s one of a kind…