Before Miguel Cotto (36-2, 29 KO’s) met Antonio Margarito (38-7, 27 KO’s) over three years ago in their first bout, I incorrectly predicted that Cotto would defeat Margarito easier than expected. 
However, I feel that my original prediction may have been correct were it not for the “helping hands” that plaster of Paris provided for Margarito.
I have no hard (no pun intended) evidence of foul play before Cotto-Margarito I, but it’s hard not to ask, “what if?”
But that was then, and this is now.
And now, nothing about my prediction has changed much.
The combination of age (which often leads to more exchanges and less movement), ring wear (which often leads to more susceptibility to cuts and to being hurt), and high stakes (which could lead to a superfight with Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao next year) make this fight desirable to watch.
Is it “must-see-TV?” It’s probably not. But it has all of the makings of a “blood-and-guts” grudge match between two fighters who clearly do not like each other for obvious reasons.
When it’s all said and done, look for a slightly fresher Cotto to out-punch and out-box the plodding Margarito over twelve bloody, dominant rounds.
Bonus Prediction: Abner Mares vs Joseph Agbeko II.
The link above actually points to my Mares-Agbeko I prediction that was proven wrong. But similar to Cotto-Margarito I, it was not without controversy. But unlike Cotto-Margarito I, this controversy was proven and not speculative.
Agbeko appeared to lose mainly because Mares not only got away with repeated low blows, but was actually rewarded for landing one key one (a heinous, fight-altering low blow in the 11th round that was incorrectly ruled a knockdown).
As in their first bout, Mares will likely be buoyed by a partisan crowd in California next Saturday. However, I expect Agbeko to fight even better, similar to his dominant rematch victory over Yonnhy Perez.
And as is often the case in rematches where it was perceived that the loser of the first bout was wronged (see Lennox Lewis vs Evander Holyfield II), Agbeko may get favorable treatment by the referee and/or judges in this fight.
As I did then, I predict that Agbeko will garner a close win. Only this time, he’ll get the “official” victory on the scorecards.
