My Official Manny Pacquiao Vs. Shane Mosley Prediction

The fight is nearly a month away but it’s not too early to talk up the biggest fight of 2011. I have already stated why "Sugar" Shane Mosley is more than a live underdog against Pacquiao. And here I will tell you why I think he’s going to defeat Manny Pacquiao next month.

I almost had you there for a second, huh?

I don’t have the chutzpah to pick the Mosley upset, so I am going to go with my old reliable fight prediction helper. It highlights many of Mosley’s advantages but it also tells me why it’s still hard to bet against "Pac Man" in this one. You need to know why? Just read below.

Each fighter’s competition has been world-class, so this key prediction criteria is a "push." In addition, the fight locale of Las Vegas, Nevada offers neither man a discernible advantage. Mosley’s contingent will likely be out-flanked by Pacquiao’s and his legion of Filipino (and other) fans, but he’s no big fight neophyte. The setting will not be unsettling for "Sugar."

Mosley’s major advantage is the fact that he’s the naturally bigger and stronger man, as he’s fought a significant portion of his career at 147 pounds and 154 pounds. Shane also is very adept at utilizing his upper-body strength and vicious body punches while "in-fighting."  If you need proof, look no further than his stoppage of Antonio Margarito. He is also a slightly better defensive fighter.

As in just about every one of his fights, Pacquiao is faster than his opponent. It’s a rare situation for Mosley, but he’ll be at a speed deficit here. I also give Pacquiao advantages in punching power and ring generalship. Years ago the prospect of my claim would have been suspect, but Pacquiao’s meteoric rise in power and skill as he’s moved up in weight, combined with Mosley’s declining powers, give Pacquiao a significant edge in these critical areas.

Unlike some, I truly expect Pacquiao-Mosley to be one of the more exciting fights of the last 12 months. Sure, Mosley is past his best, but his considerable pedigree and Pacquiao’s "ever-so-slight" slippage in recent fights (he got touched a tad too much to my liking against the "slow-as-molasses" Antonio Margarito).

However, when it is all said and done, I expect Manny Pacquiao to place another Hall of Fame scalp on his mantle after he defeats Shane Mosley in one of the more exciting fights we will have seen in awhile. Mosley will survive some scary moments, but so will Pacquiao.

Manny Pacquiao by UD 12 over Shane Mosley.