I am in a somewhat irritable mood based on my recent boxing prediction failures. But as you probably guessed, I ain’t going .jpg)
anywhere. I’m in it to win it, like an accomplished boxer trying to save his career. It may sound kind of extreme, but when Miguel Cotto (34-2, 27 KOs) meets Yuri Foreman (28-0, 8 KOs) for the WBA alphabelt, he’ll be fighting to remain relevant as one of the sport’s elite.
The pride of Caguas, Puerto Rico will be successful in his trip to Yankee Stadium in two weeks, and here’s why:
- Location. "The House that Ruth Built" may not be the safe haven that Madison Square Garden has been to Cotto throughout his career. But I’m guessing that the convenient Bronx locale, with its heavy Puerto Rican population, will provide Cotto with a distinct home ring advantage at Yankee Stadium.
- Hand Speed. Don’t get it twisted, Cotto is no speed demon. But I think this will be a rare case (of late at least) in which he’ll have the hand speed advantage. Facing Yuri Foreman after the whirlwind that is Manny Pacquiao will be a relief to Cotto.
- Ring Generalship. Foreman is actually a clever fighter who knows how to maneuver in that ring. However, he’s not on the elite level of a boxer like Cotto. Cotto can box and brawl. Foreman can box and brawl too, sans the power. Advantage Cotto.
- Competition. Here is where the gap is as wide as Michael Strahan’s toothy grin. Miguel Cotto has faced Manny Pacquiao (loss), Shane Mosley (win), Antonio Margarito (loss), Zab Judah (win) and Paulie Malignaggi (win). Yuri Foreman’s biggest threat to-date? A woefully out-of-shape Daniel Santos (win) in his last fight. Welcome to the big leagues Yuri.
- Power. If you are Top Rank’s Bob Arum, who promotes both fighters, this fight is perfect for business. It’s a major event because of its location. The B-side of the matchup (Foreman) gets a big payday and big fight exposure. The A-side (Cotto) gets the chance to pick up another belt and restore his career against a guy with less power than clock radio speakers.
- Conditioning. From what I have seen from Foreman, he appears to have a pretty decent motor. In the closing moments of his alphabelt-winning performance against Santos, he really closed the show in the final round. That’s the sign of a guy who gives his all over a fight’s distance. And we all have seen how Cotto often wilts late in fights. Advantage Foreman.
- Chin. I would not say that Cotto has a bad chin, but he doesn’t exactly have a good one. Luckily for Cotto, Foreman does not hit like George (Foreman). If he did, this flaw would possibly be a fatal one.
- Footwork. Foreman has the advantage here. Neither man will make us forget the late Michael Jackson. However, I truly believe that the punishment that Cotto received at the possibly loaded (Margarito) and unloaded (Pacquiao, Clottey) hands of his recent opponents may have taken away his legs for good.
- Size/Strength. A career junior middleweight, Foreman is four inches taller, has a five-inch reach advantage, and is naturally stronger than the former junior welterweight and welterweight champion Cotto. Size often does matter. But in boxing, skills usually matter more.
- Defense. Cotto has never had the best defense, His offense acts as his defense. Foreman is no defensive stalwart from what I have seen, but he’s pretty good at using his size and ring smarts to avoid heavy punishment. I give him an advantage here.
Despite Foreman’s considerable size advantage, look for Cotto’s overall class to carry the day. Assuming that he still has something left, Miguel Cotto will capture his third belt in a different weight class and regain some of his lost confidence, via late stoppage.
this will be a great come back for miguel cotto this is exactly the fight miguel needs. Forman, though a competent up and comer has just the style a limited punching power to allow miguel to dismantle him, look for a cootto-mosley like fight without that mosley”pop”. Very good choice by cotto camp cotto will catch him in round 8 .
@jabbo I totally agree…more great match-making by Top Rank…keeping the money in-house. It’s wild Pacquiao’s last two fights were against Top Rank stablemates Cotto and Clottey. And there’s talk that he fights Top Rank’s Antonio Margarito if talks with Mayweather fail again. Cotto’s last three fights have been against stablemates (Clottey, Pacquiao and now Foreman). They should start their own boxing league. 🙂
How about this fight Ja? Librado Andrade vs. Eric Lucas Lucas is a 9:1 underdog and given virtually no chance.
Lucas has won 3 of his last 4. Only losing Mikkel Kessler recently. Why is he such an underdog?
@Jeff Not sure why the hate for Eric Lucas, vis-a-vis Andrade. I guess the thought is that Eric Lucas is simply a little long in the tooth (old) and does not have the boxing skills nor the power to keep off a hard-hitting, determined fighter like Andrade off of him for an entire fight. I do think it can be more competitive than many expect, but you gotta go with Andrade by decision.
Sorry, I was just trying to be patriotic. After seeing this mexican lose twice to Bute. Maybe lightning strikes 3 times for Canada and we can all cash in? No Deal eh.
@Jeff If you go that Lucas route, don’t say I didn’t war you. =)
I think I will make a rational decision as apposed to emotional.
Sorry to drift off topic, But Cotto has this one.
The fact that Cotto is moving up in weight is going to make him slower and more vulnerable to get hit by Yuri,who is a really mobile fighter.
I don’t think Yuri can stop Cotto,but I do think he wins this fight on the scorecards by a wide margin…
@Jeff I was hoping you wouldn’t, so I could then blast you for being wrong! =)
@Eme Looks like there will be a lot of late money on Foreman. I just don’t see it Eme.
Heyy 🙂 what do u think will be the outcome of the klitchsko fight ??
Cotto is much stronger than foreman, that is his advantage. But da weak point is that he can’t depend on anyone; that is an advantage for the opposition.
Cotto for sure, but i’ve seen this guy go unsteady on more than one occassion when it pushes the 6th round, i’m happy to call this one in. It will not be a long bout, if it is, it will get very interesting.
Did you see that E 60 feature on ESPN on Yuri Foreman. You can tell he is just completly overwhelmed by the upcoming fight in Yankee Stadium. Too bad he’s going into the ring against a world class fighter like Cotto. Foreman gets knocked the F#*k out. Damn straight.
@Alpha I only make predictions on major/superfights…that does not qualify. 🙂
@james covert You are right about Cotto slowing down in late rounds, BUT I don’t think that Foreman has the power to take him into deep waters.
@Jeff I missed it, but yeah, that lack of big fight experience will be a big hurdle to climb. If Foreman doesn’t get rocked or stunned early, I’m thinking he’d settle in and make for a competitive fight. We’ll find out on Saturday!
I would like some insight on that Klitschko fight as well. What is Vitali doing fighting as it appears some tin can? Does anyone know anything about this guy. Does he have any chance? Why do they put this garbage on? Go fight David Haye already.
@Jeff Your guess is as good as mine.
Here is the live Klitscko fight if your interested.
http://www.justin.tv/boxingzonetv
the klitschkos should be required to fight each other or get the hell outa the way!
fight fans deserve to see the best heavyweights in the world fight each other and those would be without argument the brothers klitschko
@Jeff Is this legal? 🙂
@jabbo or fight david haye (at minimum).
Vitali is so painful to watch. He’s so robotic and dull. I don’t know how he carried that bum for 10 rounds, standing right infront of him the whole fight landing one punch at a time. I would really love to see Haymaker come knock his block off.
What did he come out of retirement for? There was no one for him to fight then and there is no one for him to fight now.
@Jeff Boringly effective however. I agree though. Wlad is more enjoyable to watch, and he too, can be pretty stiff at times. It almost seems like Vitali will TKO anyone in 10 rounds. even if they are not even that good. He’d go 10 with Sosnowski, Michael Grant, Lou Savarese (OK, maybe not), but you see my point.
All that stated, he and his bro are the two best heavyweights in the world, but I’d love to at least see Haye try to challenge their two-headed throne.
Whoever they both fight, I don’t know if anyone is going to overcome the massive size advantage. They both have had some some pretty brutal setbacks, that have shown they both can be beaten, but not in recent years. It looks like they have both learned there lessons and now look virtually unbeatable. Its not their fault I guess there is no one to fight.
I know I’m reaching to say that Hayemaker could possibly beat one of them. But he is probably the only hope there is right now.
I think I speak for all us when I say we are all sick of the lack of intriguing fights in the heavyweight division. We really need a new crop of a good fighters to emerge. Not just one guy who blows everyone away. We need rivals, and promoters who make the big fights happen. I like that super 6 tournament. At least these guys, you know are going to fight each other.
incredible…… Hey but what what a no-win deal for yuri foreman, if he beats cotto (which he won’t) he beats a guy that’s widely considered a “spent” fighter and if he loses (and he will) he couldn’t even beat the damaged cotto. Though this guy is supposed to be the sacrificial lamb, he’d better not lose.
@Jeff I couldn’t have said it better myself. Well said J.
@jabbo Couldn’t you also say it’s a no-win for Cotto though? Thinkaboutit, if he loses, he’s done as a top, title contender. If he wins, it’s kinda like so what….can he beat any of the top guys (which Foreman is not considered to be). We should bill this fight, “Who Wins the No-Win (Fight)?” lol
Foreman is like the spitting image of Ricky Hatton prior to the build up of the Pacqauio fight. Like that fight, this will not be much of a contest for Cotto.
@Jeff that’s a big statement J, ie considering that Hatton had huge fights against Mayweather and Tszyu previously. Hard to think he had stage fright against Pacquiao but not prior to those other events, ie the fight with King Kotsa.
Sorry I meant prior to the Mayweather fight. That being he is undefeated. But really, Do you think Foreman would still be undefeated at this point had he faced Margartio, Pacquaio, and Mosley?
Much different dynamics as i’m sure you’re aware ja, cotto loses and his name is still cotto…
@Jeff No, he would not be undefeated. lol
@jabbo Yes, but if Cotto lose to Foreman, he’s c(lower case)otto.
Hmm, Cotto have to fight @ a heavier weight now, anyone knows who this steward guy (Cotto’s trainer) is? He sacked his previous one? The young guy? Question is what if Yuri Foreman got the chin to withstand Cotto’s punches, till the late rounds? I think he may be able to squeeze out a decision. Cotto knows if he doesn’t knock this guy out, he’d be in quite some trouble.
Hey Ja. Well I have been reading all the comments and I have to say I believe Cotto will lose. I do not agree with the fact that most of you all are riding Foreman off. I have seen some of his fights plus I have been studying some of his fights and what can I say I like the way this kid fights. I am a Mayweather fan and have always been and I have to say I appreciate the sweet sciece of technical, crafty boxing. I am not saying that Foreman is a Mayweather by any means but what I am saying is that he has good speed and his ring generalship is superb. I feel that Cotto is tailor-made for Foreman’s style as you know they say style makes fights. Cotto will be easy to hit and Foreman will hit and move and I believe this will frustrate Cotto and cause him to try to engage more than he had planned. I believe Cotto will get cut maybe between the 4th or 6th as you know he is known for gashing. Foreman hits more solid than people think and I think he could get the stoppage anywhere from the 6th to 10th, if not, he will win a decision because at this point in their careers Foreman wants it more. Cotto has had the fame and shiny lights and really at this point I believe cannot beat a B fighter, he had a great career and took and everyone and he put on great shows but I believe he is done against the good opposition.
Just curious to what you guys bet on these fights? I’m usually not more than $100. But don’t bet very often. This one is pay $40 for every $100 you bet on Cotto.
I think that Cotto is going to take foreman down because he is a better fighter and has more experience than foreman… can someone tell me who is the person that is helping Cotto to take the shit out of foreman??? i know he is a Hall of Famer…. I heard that Cotto’s new trainer say that he put his head down a lot and that’s why he gets punch in the face but that the trainer is working on his speed, defense, offense. I hope he wins this one..
@Herman The trainer is Emmanuel Steward…I know you knew that! 😉 But I agree with your take, I just think Cotto has too much world-class experience.
@Jeff I have yet to bet on any of these fights but if/when I do, it’ll be in that similar, modest range of $100-200 most likely.
@Eli Your logic for a Foreman victory is not beyond the realm of possibility. He’s a slick boxer, is naturally bigger, and appears to possibly have better stamina than Cotto. That stated, I still do not think it will be enough. But who am I? I have gotten my last two predictions dead wrong.
@Alpha Yuri does seem to have a good set of whiskers, but he hasn’t really faced hug punchers either. This should be a decent scrap no doubt.
Yuri gets knocked out the same way Pacaquio knocked out Hatton. Guatanteed, its an early night. Make plans to go out after.
Cotto regaining his boxing name against Foreman who is building his name in boxing. Who will win?
This is the question that will be answered by this bout. Me, go for Cotto but wait don’t underestimate Foreman 😀
@Jeff That’s big talk — name the round big guy!
@Reinvaldez So, who are you picking? Cotto or Foreman?!?! 🙂
Cotto, KO 4.
Sorry. This guy is not really in the same league as him.
@Jeff I do think that Cotto is a class (A) above Foreman (B). However, Cotto may be closer to A- at this point of his career and Foreman may be closer to B+. And when was the last time that Cotto stopped anyone as early as four rounds?!? It’s HIGHLY unlikely for him to stop a bigger, pretty skilled fighter like Foreman that early. I at least give you props for going out on a limb, like me of late. ha, ha I just won’t be doing it here — Cotto late stoppage/decision.
Ok, How’s this?
I will cover any gambling losses any of you guys should incur if Cotto should somehow lose this fight.
@Jeff That’s gangsta. I’ll pass for now however…I don’t have my betting mojo up as of yet.
I do see your reason for concern Ja.
On one hand we have a guy who is undefeated. He did not get there for no reason. He is obviously talented. He’s a boxer, not a puncher. He has never been knocked out or lost, which I cannot ignore.
The other hand we have a guy who has been in a lot of tough fights with a seemingly world class oposition. He is coming off the toughest loss of his career where he was dominated from start to finish and failed to even capture a round. How will he rebound, is the question everyone is unsure about.
@Jeff I am not overly concerned however. I just don’t think a Cotto win within four rounds is to be expected. I’d honestly be shocked.
But I like your breakdown above, so much so, that I may let you wrote a guest post one day. 🙂
Well we were pretty much bang on.
Let me do prediction for an offshore fight in Japan between two guys I have never heard of. I will pick something were the odds are pretty even. I will come up with a story line and give my predicition. It will be comical if anything.
@Jeff Yes, the outcome was comparable but the distance was not.
Funny idea on the post, but I was thinking something more conventional, in terms of the fighters’ notoriety…but the comical tone is always-welcomed!
Props to Ja for his pick
What’s next? Ward – Green?
@EmE Thanks. Nothing like an easy fight to pick, to stop a prediction losing streak. ha, ha And yes, Ward-Green is next…hint: the predicted winner’s first name begins with an ‘A.’ 😉