Fight Insight

Boxing Predictions

Cruel And Exciting Punishment: Vazquez Meets Marquez Again

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First off, I want to apologize to my dedicated commenters, like Jeff, who warned me not to pick Paulie Malignaggi to upset Amir Khan. That upset pick halted my 20 boxing prediction winning streak. The "fight pickings" get no easier this week.

Enter the fourth installation of Israel Vazquez (44-4, 32 KOs) vs. Rafael Marquez (38-5, 34 KOs).

Logic dictates that this will be business as usual in favor of Vazquez. He lost their first epic battle but has gone on to batter and bruise Marquez in their second and third (albeit very close) bouts. If only predicting tough fights like these were so easy.

I’ll spare you the detailed breakdown of the key factors that will determine the winner. As was the case in their previous three fights, Rafael Marquez has superior technical skills. Skill usually trumps will. However, if you know anything about this series, you know that it’s been Israel Vazquez’s will that has won out two out of three times.

Will Skill or Will Win This Time Around?

Your guess is as good as mine. However, I won’t be guessing this go-round, given what happened with my most recent prediction. The will of Israel Vazquez will edge (via decision) the skill of Rafael Marquez in what promises to be another brutal, close and exciting affair.

Filed Under: Boxing Predictions

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About Ja Dawes

After years of debating via email with my buddies on topics ranging from who the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world is to who is going to win the upcoming heavyweight title fight, I wanted to create a forum where I could share my opinions on such topics. Enter FightInsight.com. You can also follow me on Twitter: fightinsight

Comments

  1. tom says

    i lost money on the last izzy vasquez fight, but i wonder if he isn’t even more shopworn. i may skip this one unless one has a good payoff.

  2. Ja Dawson says

    @tom: you make a real good point; i could definitely see marquez winning here. i hope you haven’t jinxed my prediction! ha, ha by the way, do you bet at bodog or use other online sources. feel free to email me if you don’t wanna respond here my man?

  3. Bob says

    Ja, this is totally unrelated to this fight prediction-just a quick comment to show my appreciation for your efforts with your excellent website. Keep it up my man..

  4. Ja Dawson says

    @Bob I really appreciate the kind words my man. And do tell ya friends about me! =) Who do you have in this fight? Vazquez or Marquez?

  6. Bob says

    These two have pretty much made and destroyed each others careers, the fights they have had have been so brutal that neither man can honestly say that a huge piece have been taken from them. Based on history Vazquez will probably be cut at some point in the fight – he has a badly scarred left eye. For me the fight is a coin toss but am edging towards Marquez via mid round stoppage.

  7. Ja Dawson says

    @Bob Is it too late for me to change my prediction? Very good point about the propensity for Vazquez to get stopped on cuts. I’ll stick with the familiar winner (Israel Vazquez) in this series. Gotta play the “known” percentages.

  9. Bob says

    Ja, stick to your word on the prediction dude! You may well be right…I guess I am basing the outcome on upside of the two fighter, I think Marquez may have slightly more based on their respective last bouts. However, I am wondering if I am placing too much emphasis on Vazquez cuts causing problem for him- as he looks bloody around the eyes all the time! But has prevailed before with this hinderance…

  11. Eli says

    Hey Ja, I can see how familiarity can persuade you to pick Vazquez. The only problem is that have you seen both fighters fight after their long layoffs? Well if you have like I did you can clearly see that Marquez looks fresher and sharper than Vazquez. Vazquez had a hard time in his last fight against Angel Priolo who had lost his previous 6 fights. This was a wake up call to me and the reason why I believe that Marquez is the fighter to go with here. Marquez in all three previous fights has been able to outbox Vazquez and has controlled the pace with the jab. Marquez’s only problem is that he likes to engage in a hook battle with Vazquez and that has turned out to be a bad idea. I feel that Marquez will fight from the outside, controlling the distance and popping him in and out and will break Vazquez’s will to a stoppage within 8 rounds. Marquez has all the tools and techniques to neutralize Vazquez but he chooses to make wars out of his fights with Vazquez but he will be more subtle now and clearly stamp a W on his resume.

  12. Jeff says

    These fights completly do not follow the pattern of the guy who wins the first fight win the second fight usually easier. Both these guys have suffered alot in the first 3 fights. It may just come down to the fresher healthier younger guy. I would go with Vasquez on this one. TKO 10.

  14. Ja Dawson says

    @Eli, I totally agree that Rafael is the more skilled man, but what makes you think he’ll fully utilize those skills in the fourth go-round, when he did not in three previous meetings?

  15. Eli says

    He has a new trainer. He will move in and out and stick to his plan just watch. Vazquez’s eye looks bad and I don’t think it will hold up. Hey Ja I want to hear your take on Yonnhy Perez vs Abner Mares, I am pumped up to watch these guys go at it. I have followed both of them but am torn because I can’t pick a clear winner.

  19. Jeff says

    No Showtime here in Canada. I will have to steal it off the internet like I do virtually every other fight.

  20. david says

    Hey Ja, what can you say about Tyson Fury vs John Mcdermott? Is there a stoppage? tnx

  21. david says

    Hi Ja, just ignore what i emailed to you earlier regarding tyson fury and john mcdermott really sorry. tnx. By the way im from London obviously i doubt if you know these guys.

  23. Ja Dawson says

    @david:@Thanks for giving me a fight prediction ‘pass’ here. I wasn’t sure if Tyson fury was an mma fighter or someone on a video game. 🙂 Good luck on your prediction though!

  26. Ja Dawson says

    @Eli:I so see what you mean re: the Mares-Perez fight. I am clearly leaning towards Perez because of his eye-opening performance against “King King” Agbeko, but he also showed many signs of vulnerability in that fight too. I don’t have DEEP knowledge on either fighter, but that Agbeko find stands out – but it’s definitely a toss-up, similar to Vazquez-Marquez.

  27. Jeff says

    Sorry Ja, Looks like your starting a new streak. lol
    My only defense on my predicition is that I did not see the first 3 fights. You on the other hand just had another brain cramp. lol

  28. Ja Dawson says

    @Jeff Really funny, where was the props when I predicted 20 in a row though? 😉 It’s all good, I’ll be back…I can take the criticism. Good call though my man.

  29. jabbo says

    yohnny perez fight was certainly a treat. There were remnants of hearns/hagler. Williams/martinez. It was all there. That fight the word rematch written all over it! Oh

  30. jabbo says

    @ja, sorry i got away from the forum for awhiile, but i would’ve predictd the stoppage in 5. I really believe that this would time for all the fans who really enjoyed the wars between vasquez/marquez to say thank you and farewell to the warrior vasquez, even without the cuts vasquez has his best days behind him. Granted the boxing skiills of vasquez will make him formidable foe for a lesser fighter, i feel its evident that the wars hes been a certainly taken its toll. I find it so amazing that styles make fights, but whats more frequently overlooked is the fact styles can determine a fighter’s longevity in the sport. I think what’s more unfortunate is the fact that the best fighters are the last to see it coming.

  31. Jeff says

    Just like a fighter knowone remembers the specatular string of victories, only the crushing defeats. Especially losing the last 2 predictions which everyone thinks you should have got right. You won tougher predictions in the past convincingly. These last 2 are really going to deminish your credability going forward. You have let all your supporters down. Your not the champion we all thought you were Ja. lol

  33. Ja Dawson says

    @jabbo, no worries, better (late) comment than never. Yeah, Israel Vazquez is done. He had a nice run though. Juan Manual Marquez is the superior fighter, skill-wise. I simply thought he had Marquez’s number. That stated, his “paper” skin definitely aided Marquez’s cause. I hope there is NOT a fifth fight. That would be bloody and ugly (for Vazquez).

  34. tom says

    @ja yes bodog is one of six that i use. No SHO in Canada? Man, that’s rough. Good luck surfing the Net for it; that can be tricky from what I hear. lost money on mares due to having given 2 points. did win a little on the over at bodog. said it before, but they should use five judges for title fights. saw that all three from the ‘press’ ‘voted’ for mares. i bet against izzy, .. but really sorry to see the cuts he received.

  35. Jeff says

    Actually the showtime feeds are picked up by one of our Movie Channels. The HBO feed sucks though. We only get West, which is never live from East Coast Fights. Always 2 hours behind.

    Finding the fights on the internet is super easy. You can see all the PPV’s. Overseas fights live. Use this link.

    http://www.myp2pforum.eu/forums/48

  40. Ja Dawson says

    @tom damn, you use six? what are the others? i think mares won, but it was not a robbery. people really mis-use the robbery term. you hear it used often simply when a fighter they think won loses, even when it’s close. a robbery to me is lewis-holyfield i, whitaker-chavev or bush-gore election (j/k)…seriously, it’s when someone CLEARLY appears to have won but does not get the nod.

  41. Ja Dawson says

    @Jeff Good-looking out for the information! Cotto-Foreman fight pick up tomorrow, then taking a week of for Memorial Day…I’m looking to start a new streak in early June at Yankee Stadium…hopefully as successful as my New York Mets recent “Yankee win streak.” ha, ha

  42. jabbo says

    with both his performance gotta go with green in this one ja as much as like ward and am very impressed with his performance in the kessler fight as well as his overall progression, however i believe ward has the package to make it a rough night’s work for the taller, hard-hitting green. One other thing that makes me feel that green wins this one is his overall attitude, he seems to possess the only factor that’s important to winning a fight short of ability and that’s a sincere belief and confidence that he can get the job done. Green possesses a michael moorer-like attitude and confidence in his ability, its that kind of confidence that antonio tarver displayed when no one believed he could roy jones, although many fighters show a great deal of cockiness prior to a fight(and i believe they should), there’s something different when you know its real . Look forward to a terrific fight and a new super middleweight champion.

  43. Ja Dawson says

    Great analysis and prediction. You convinced me that Green will defeat Ward. Well, you almost did. 🙂 I just find Green to be annoyingly inconsistent in many fights. I’ll give him a pass against Miranda because it was later discovered that he was battling a serious illness. But even in many of his wins I have seen holes in his game that can and will be exploited by the more clever, faster, and maybe more importantly, hometown fighter in this one. But for sure, Green is not a joke in the least. Another X-factor: how dinged up is Andre Ward’s knee?

  44. jabbo says

    @ja, too long to post huh? haha! my b”. i tend to super analyze sometimes for sure.

  45. Ja Dawson says

    @jabbo for some reason it went into my SPAM filter. perhaps my site felt the comment was too heavy on the screen! lol i’ts live now, and i respectfully disagree, but green will be a tough one. i just prefer consistent over inconsistent. and andre ward has been very consistent (in his biggest fights against miranda and kessler).

  46. Jeff says

    I would use bet365.com

    Be careful on some of the offshore gambling sites can charge up $50 service charges to withdraw your winnings. This site gives you one free withdrawl a month. Then again. If you are using Ja’s picks lately that probably has not been a problem. I think Ja would is better suited for predicting the weather lately than fights. lol

    lots of love Ja, haha.

    Jeff

  48. Jeff says

    I would say Foreman has very little hope in beating Cotto. Just 8 Ko’s and 28 fights tells me he has little or no power. He is not going to hurt Cotto. I guess he has the hometown crowd, but skill and the superior opposition cotto has faced should prove a relativley easy win for Cotto. I think this guy is taylor made for Cotto coming off a loss to Pacquiao. Foremans perfect record does not impress me much when he is in the ring with a guy like Cotto. Look for a stoppage victory for Cotto.