Last week, I stated the case for Joshua Clottey against Manny Pacquiao. This week, I’ll tell you why Clo.jpg)
ttey’s case will not be heard by any judge ringside in two weeks. Sure, Clottey can fight, but he ain’t never seen anything like the Pac Man.
- Locale. Even. Pacquiao will definitely have the huge Cowboys Stadium crowd behind him because he’s the main attraction of this event. However, in Cowboys Stadium, only Tony Romo and his teammates can really call this place home.
- Hand Speed. Advantage Pacquiao. This is perhaps the biggest advantage that Pacquiao will have in the fight. It’s often his biggest advantage in most fights. When I stated earlier that Clottey "ain’t never seen anything like the Pac Man," hand speed is what I was referring to.
- Ring Generalship. Advantage Pacquiao. Under the watchful eye of his excellent trainer Freddie Roach, Pacquiao has improved leaps and bounds since his lighter (weight) days. He can fight at various speeds, fighting off the back foot or off the front foot. Clottey on the other hand is, at best, methodical, and at worst, plodding.
- Competition. Advantage Pacquiao. Clottey’s resume of Carlos Baldomir (loss), Diego Corrales (win), Miguel Cotto (loss), Zab Judah (win) and Antonio Margarito (loss) is nothing to sneeze at. But Pacquiao’s victim list of Marco Antonio Barrera (twice), Miguel Cotto, Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Erik Morales (twice) and Juan Manuel Marquez is the stuff legends are made of.
- Power. Advantage Pacquiao. The biggest thing that has astounded me about Pacquiao is the fact that his power has been maintained as he’s moved up in weight. That will be put to the ultimate test against Clottey, who has never really been seriously hurt in the ring. We know that Pacquiao hits harder but what happens when he sees that he can’t hurt Clottey?
- Conditioning. Advantage Pacquiao. Both men are always in tip-top shape. However, Clottey has shown a tendency to punch less down the home stretch of his biggest fights. Whether it be mental or physical, he gets fatigued somewhere.
- Chin. Advantage Clottey. Not only does Clottey have a cast-iron chin but his "ear-muff" defense makes it hard to reach. If Clottey is seriously hurt by Pacquiao, I’d honestly be pretty surprised. I’m hyped to see how this sub-plot unfolds come fight night.
- Footwork. Advantage Pacquiao. Clottey fights big. By that, I mean that he fights very deliberate behind a heavy, albeit under-utilized jab, and strong overhand right. Pacquiao bounces in and out, throwing powerful combinations from weird angles and positions. What stays solid is his foundation.
- Size/Strength. Advantage Clottey. When looking at Clottey’s chiseled frame, you wonder if he’s the one folks should be asking to undergo a battery of additional blood tests for performance-enhancing drugs. I’m kidding. However, Pacquiao better take the naturally bigger and stronger Clottey very seriously in two weeks.
- Defense. Advantage Clottey. Defense wins championships, and Clottey has the edge in this all-important area. However, it can be a gift and a curse. As we have seen a few times before, Clottey often spends so much time in his shell that a turtle would be jealous. Not hitting and not being hit will not bring the title back to Ghana. You got that?
According to the Boxing Fight Predictor, all signs point towards a Manny Pacquiao rout of Joshua Clottey. I believe that Pacquiao will win but will be forced to go the distance against the always-tough Ghanaian. Clottey will have a few moments, but he simply does not punch enough to pull off the upset.
Manny Pacquiao should coast to a unanimous decision victory on March 13. Tell me what you think.
Only three out of ten criteria favor to Clottey. (The first is Pacquiao’s based on what you said) With seven strikes against Clottey and only three against Pacquiao, Cotto Knocked him down with just a jab in the first round. Cotto hit Pacuiao many times with that same Jab in the first two rounds, jarring his head back each time, but each time it just made Pacquiao come back more focused. Cotto has a tough chin, but, if he is as slow as you’ve described him to be, that chin is going to be tenderized meat! Even if he gets hit there no more than three times a round- and Pacquiao has a penchant for landing at least twice that many- if he goes full 12 rounds, it means he’s going to be hit 36 times! Pacquiao TKO’d Diaz, Cotto, Hatton, and Dela Hoya with fewer punches. I don’t know how Cottley will be able withstand 36 powerful blows on the chin, possibly even more, Cotto doesn’t fight throughout; he goes into a shell after the 6th or 7th round. He doesn’t seem to have the killer instinct (we saw how it was in the Cotto fight). He cannot fight Pacquiao the same way. It would be suicide! Even if he does not, I don’t think he is going to last 12 rounds. if Clottey remains standing till the end, you would have to reconsider #9.
Sifufor, thanks for breaking down my breakdown. You make good points about Clottey, but he arguably has a better defense than all of the men that you mentioned and is physically stronger than each of them as well. In addition, he arguably has a better chin than all four as well. I agree that he’ll likely have to show more movement, but even if he doesn’t, and gets hit more than usual, I’d be shocked to see him retire on his stool as Oscar did (although it’s not beyond the realm of possibility given his penchant to make excuses after his losses). I am just hoping for a decent scrap. Thanks for writing.
@Sifufor:The other thing about Cotto’s knockdown against Clottey — it was a flash knockdown. He was not hurt in any way but simply walked stiff into a solid jab. A knockdown nonetheless, but I’m just saying …
Totally Agree!….
The fact remains- Cotto’s single jab knocked him down. Hurt? DId I say he was hurt?
paq is a heavy fav. the big question is the over- under. think i’ll take the over. took the under on jones last week. uggh
manny pacquaio will win by knock-out! pacman will slowly wear down clottey. by the 10th round, referee will have no option but to stop the fight to prevent further damage to clottey.
Yes, but anyone can be knocked down with a punch they walk into or don’t see. That flash knockdown is no indication of anything in my opinion, as far as this fight goes. Honestly, it was an anomaly.
@Paul V: I could see that type of stoppage, on his feet or on his stool (for Clottey). I just don’t see him getting KTFO’d.
@tom, yeah, it seems like it may last for awhile.
Clottey won’t see it coming. Right and then a left, Pacquiao will ultimately throw a straight left hand that will put Clottey down. Clottey will go into his defense shell but it will be in vain and the fight will be stopped in round 3! Well that might be too early but Clottey simply doesn’t throw and Pacquiao will maximize that opportunity. Perhaps a 10th round stoppage?
…inspite of his iron chin, Clottey will not absorb just one punch attacks from Pacman, he will as did the other iron-chinned opponents of Pacman be receiving volleys of sharp shots to both head and da body, recall if u will ur opinion prior to Pacman’s fights w/ his bigger opponents, Diaz, DLH, Cotto, and Hatton all were known to have been solid, did u expect da results as they were after those fights…at da prefight interviews it almost became funny how those elite fighters couldn’t fathom being knocked out by a smaller opponent including urself maybe, but during postfight interviews they were unanimous in their experience dat Pacman was elusive, too fast, punches in bunches coming from all angles and got stronger as da fight went on…Clottey will meet da same.
Lucio, I could see a late stoppage by Pacquiao but I would not drop down any greenbacks on it though!
elmo, you speak some truth BUT let’s break these guys down a bit further…Diaz, with all due respect, was a glorified sparring partner, Oscar has a very good chin but was also dropped by a single body shot against Hopkins (who’s not known for one-punch KO power) and was dropped a couple of times earlier in his career, Cotto was repeatedly rocked and shocked at 140 and we saw what Margacheato did to him (and even Judah in isolated spots), and lastly, Hatton was just KTFO’d by the lighter-hitting (than Pac Man) Mayweather and had been rocked by lighter-hitting (than Pac Man) Luis Collazo. Yes, bigger men, but by no means “un-hurtable.” In fact, they were all dropped or hurt by guys who aren’t known for punching power. The other side to my argument is that Pac deserves for more credit for hurting them, since he’s naturally smaller, but I wouldn’t say any of them, except Oscar, could truly be defined as super-sturdy in the chin department.
Oh! Manny’s been interviewed on Jimmy Kimmel on what he thinks on Clottey. He respects the boxer!
I will go for manny..
Joshua Clottey has not yet been KO’d, and i think this is his first time. Manny Pacquiao will ghive it to him. Though he has the strength and size advantage, Manny still can win the fight using his speed and power. Surely Clottey won’t see it coming and he will have the biggest shock of his life.
wel 1 thing i just wanna say we all know that pac’s is really good now a days he’s become good every fight…now ul see some pac’s new learned and it would be more exciting than before..pac’s will win at the early round filipino no1 in boxing
maywhether coward jr is not exciting fighter but everyone would excite for pac’s and maywhether fight bco’z of pac..agree???
tim, i agree that many would be watching manny to see him shut up the talkative mayweather and that many simply love to watch manny andn his exciting style pitted against anyone. but i would not discount what mayweather brings to the table as far as american fans (i.e. movie and music celebrities/high-rollers), die-hards who love to see the sweet science of boxing, and cross-over fans due to his out-of-the-ring exploites (wrestling, dancing with the stars). basically, the key elements of a superfight. let’s pray that it happens.
…i agree partly w/ u Ja Dawson, DLH may have had da better chin in dat list of elite fighters except Cotto, had DLH been on da receiving end of Margarito’s shots to Cotto (w/ or w/o da plaster additive) he would have gone down, eventually…regarding DLH’s fight w/ da Pacman, i think it was academic dat he knew der was more dignity from da paparrazzi’s perspective to quit on da stool dan on his back which was inevitable w/ 3 more rounds to go in a battered condition w/ failing legs…da Pac was already receiving Roach’s signal to end it by KO…check it out in da last 10 years no one has fought Pacman who didn’t taste da canvas unless it was a standing TKO(regardless of division)..need i say more…Morales, Barera, and Marquez have gone da distance but have all visited da canvas w/ da Pac dan any other elite opponents they faced.
@elmo…i hear you. No one is debating Pac Man’s power…I’m just arguing that the folks he’s blasted outta there at the higher weights weren’t all that GREAT in the chin music department. i think we’re on a similar page. thanks for writing!
pac-man round 7-8 rsf he will overwhelm clottey, he will just out work clottey. pac-man will find it difficult to put clottey down.
danny
@ danny boyle, glad to have a celebrity director like you write in. great work on 28 days later and slumdog millionaire – two of my favorite flics. =) all kidding aside, your prediction is a highly likely scenario. but i’m gonna stick with pac man via UD12, because i think clottey is 1) very tough and 2) will be so determined to leave a lasting impression in the biggest fight of his career by far.
Pacquiao the winner with a first round knockout!
Gene, I hope you’re not betting on that! =)
That is a good analysis. Footwork is a key factor here. Manny’s is much better and he will move in and out and fight when he wants to. Clotty while a great blocker
will be standing in front of Manny who can hit with power from unexected angles.
Manny by overwhelming decision or possibly by stoppage.
Max
Max, two more days until seeing our predictions come true! 🙂
a good rock on the track can derail any train
Eryk, please tell me what you mean? 🙂
Thanks Ja,
This should be a close one. I think that Mayweather will get the edge in scoring so you could be right. Mosley will have to really put the pressure on.
I reposted the above under the Mayweather Mosley predictions.
Max