I am not picking "Bad" Chad Dawson (26-0, 17 KO) because he and I share the same surname. At this p
oint of his career, he’s simply a better, but more importantly, fresher fighter than Antonio "Magic Man" Tarver (27-4, 19 KO). It will be a bad night for Tarver on Saturday, October 11.
I know, I know…you are probably wondering why am I overlooking what appears to be a porcelain chin on Dawson. Trust me, it is something that makes my prediction somewhat uneasy. Dawson has been dropped or hurt by just about every decent fighter he has faced at light heavyweight, including Eric Harding, Tomasz Adamek, and Glencoffe Johnson. However, I like the fact that he has gotten up and won impressively in each case (the Johnson fight being the exception).
Despite this potential fatal chink in Dawson’s armor, he gets a "check" in just about every category except experience and maybe power. For what he lacks in these areas, he trumps Tarver in the all-important categories of conditioning and speed (of hand and foot). I even think a case can be made that he has the intangible "heart" advantage over Tarver. In the fights in which he’s been dropped, he’s dug down deep and flourished. The same can not be said for Tarver in his first fight against Eric Harding and his fight for the undisputed light heavyweight title against Bernard Hopkins.
I expect a distance fight, and I have to go with the better-conditioned, faster and more fleet-footed boxer (Dawson). And you can’t go wrong with that last name of his. Dawson will survive a few scary moments but should out-punch Tarver early and dominate him late.
Chad Dawson by Unanimous Decision Over Antonio Tarver
