Make no mistake about it, I am not as comfortable as I would like to be with this fight prediction. Picking against Bernard Hopkins (48-4-, 32 KOs) is like picking against Tom Brady in the fourth quarter – you just feel he’s going to find a way to win. However, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I let my feelings take over my insight. My mind tells me that Joe Calzaghe (44-0, 32 KOs) gets a "check" in just about every category that matters, except one. The one area that Hopkins has an advantage in is his unrivaled ring smarts – and it is his only hope in this fight. What’s between Bernard’s ears can potentially negate all of Calzaghe’s strengths in speed, natural size, and footwork. Anyone that remembers Hopkins’s dominant wins over the favored Felix Trinidad (TKO 12) and Antonio Tarver (UD 12) need not be reminded. Trust me, I remember.
I’ve had a busy week so far, so I will keep it short. In his first visit to the United States for a fight, Joe Calzaghe will experience some butterflies early on. But I expect him to find his rhythm by about round five. From this point on, he will display too much hand speed, combination punching, and fancy footwork for the 43-year old light heavyweight champion, at this advanced stage of his career. In the pre-fight hype Bernard Hopkins ranted that he would never let a white boy beat him. Let’s just say I hope that ring announcer Larry Merchant raises the issue in the post-fight interview.
JOE CALZAGHE BY UNANIMOUS DECISION OVER BERNARD HOPKINS
If I were working on my “Great American” script, instead of trudging away at work, I would have the crusty old ex-con, and citizen of the City of Brotherly Love, provide a brilliant storyline of one man’s struggle from poverty to prison, past the gates of advancing age, and on to the glory of victory over the younger, crisper, undefeated fighter.
Unfortunately, I’m not that creative, and reality tends to prevail in such contests outside of Hollywood. Joe Calzaghe has not lost a fight in over ten years, and frankly, other than a few shaky moments, has never really been in any “trouble” in the ring in 44 fights (32 of which he ended by KO). With over 20 title defenses, he is just a few fights shy of Joe Louis’s 25 total successful defenses, or, if you want a better idea in terms more akin to the “European standard” (like the metric system or “Euro”), he is on the cusp of overcoming Dariusz Michalczewski’s 23 total defenses at Light Heavyweight.
Any way you cut it, add it, or dissect it, as it were, Calzaghe’s hand-speed, foot-speed, punch diversity, and overall ring skills have shown to be brilliant, particularly of late. At 168, it can be argued, effectively, he was and is, without peer. At 175, against a 43 year old former middleweight, I still like his chances, and so does the house.
Calzaghe will beat Hopkins around the ring in a shocking, if not disturbing, display of dominance that will leave even the most ardent Hopkins fans jaw-droppingly stunned at how easy The “Pride of Wales” outworks and outpoints Hopkins.
Gentle readers, this fight will not even be close.
Very well written, you should write more often! 🙂 I have to admit that I agree with your words for the most part, EXCEPT, that it will not be close. When was the last time that a Hopkins fight has not been close (in his defeats)? Even his loss to a young Roy Jones, Jr. at 160 pounds was not a total blowout.
Well Ja Dawson, I will follow my feelings and predict a decision win for Hopkins. I think Joe is a great fighter but is over hyped. He has not, in the mind of many, faced tough competition, unlike Hopkins.Joe himself is not a young fighter…..he is 39. Yet, his weak competition makes him look like a young fighter at his prime. Joe has a good chance at beating Hopkins, but what I see in Hopkins is an experienced fighter who will unmask Calzaghe’s flaws. The only edge Joe has is his speed, other than that, Hopkins is at a better advantage with his home field advantage and experience.
Calzaghe is a what you would call a “young” 36-year old. I like how you added three years onto his age. lol Nonetheless, I think he has actually faced decent comp, i.e. as of late. You don’t think that Jeff Lacy and Mikkel Kessler were good fighters? I will concede that Bernard has faced better comp over the balance of his career (Jones, Glen Johnson, Trinidad, Tarver, Winky Wright, and Jermain Taylor). However, Calzaghe fought EVERYONE at 168, for better or for worse, and remained undefeated. I think he has more advantages than just speed. He has the fresher/younger legs and throws more punches – that means a lot. We’ll see though. Great point about the home States advantage (although, I’m confident that the refs won’t be playing around with their cards).