I have already shared my tips on successfully predicting boxing match winners, but as the Jermain Taylor vs. Kelly Pavlik super middleweight rematch nears, I just realized that I forgot to include an additional tip. That is, if two fighters have already met, and one fighter has knocked the other fighter out, it would be in your best interest to pick the winner again. As a matter of fact, the previous fight’s winner often wins the return match in easier fashion. For argument’s sake, here’s a classic middleweight example that comes to mind: Gerald McClellan-Julian Jackson I (McClellan TKO 5); Gerald McClellan-Julian Jackson II (McClellan TKO 1).
Only a handful of fighters (i.e. Lennox Lewis against Oliver McCall and Hasim Rahman, respectively) can overcome the psychological effect that comes with facing someone who has recently dislodged them from their senses. Depending on how devastating the knockout loss was, the challenge in the rematch may also be a physical one, due to the lingering effects of the previous concussion. This all adds up to bad news for Bad Intentions. One, I do not think Taylor is in the select group of fighters who can turn the tables on their conqueror. And two, I think Taylor is fighting too soon (without a tuneup) after such a devastating loss.
The higher weight that this fight is being fought at (166 lbs.) will be inconsequential. Both men will likely be stronger. Both men will show heart. But the Ghost will again emerge victorious. And history tells us that he’ll win easier.
PREDICTION: KELLY PAVLIK TKO 6 JERMAIN TAYLOR
