I have very high expectations for Saturday night. Tomorrow, I am going to order the pay-per-view broadcast a day early, send an email invitation to my boxing pals to stop by, pick up a few cases of beer, and have my phone set to speed dial the local Domino’s Pizza. When you are prepping for the possible "fight of the year," you have to be ready.
I don’t know how Shane Mosley (44-4, 37 KOs) plans to get ready for the unbeaten Miguel Cotto (30-0, 25 KOs) on Saturday night, but I can tell you why I think he will win.
Shane Mosley will beat Miguel Cotto, because he has a better chin, superior hand speed, tighter defense, steadier footwork, and most importantly, has faced better competition. For what he lacks in natural reflexes, Cotto makes up for in the areas of mental and physical determination. Very few fighters can match Cotto’s effective aggressiveness, fighting spirit and overall stamina. These strengths will narrow the gap in natural talent between he and Shane. However, the talent gap will still be too considerable for Cotto to overcome, as I expect Mosley to impose his significant physical advantages (especially hand speed) on Cotto like no one before.
In a fight that will likely live up to its "fight of the year" hype, look for "Sugar" Shane Mosley to put on a sweet performance in front of the pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden. The crowd will help energize Cotto, but ultimately, they can’t enter the ring to block Shane’s punches or protect Miguel’s shaky chin. The same fatal flaw (chin) that relegated "Glass Joe" to second-class citizenship in boxing video game lore, will lead to the end of Cotto’s 30-fight unbeaten streak.
My prediction: Shane Mosley and Miguel Cotto will trade some heavy leather early on, but the accumulation of Mosley’s straighter, sharper punches will fell the game Cotto by round ten.
Shane mosley will show the world that he still has what it takes to win and knock out cotto
I tend to agree…although I have seen stranger things happen.
I think that saying Cotto has a glass jaw is an exaggeration. He’s hittable and leads with his head, but I wouldn’t call it a glass jaw.
At the same time, have we forgotten how Shane has been beaten up by fighters such as Vernon Forrest?
Stylistically, I feel that Cotto doesn’t really pose any problems for Shane and that will be the reason that Shane wins. Cotto has some major defensive problems that will be exploited by Shane. At the same time, Shane’s hand speed and more crowd pleasing style should help him earn points on the judges scorecard.
All of the intangibles such as experience in big situations and victories over top fighters have to go in Shane’s favor as well. So I’m predicting the fight for Mosley as well, but I also want to go on record as saying that I wouldn’t be surprised if there is an early KO or at least knockdown by Cotto. Mosely could get old and show his 36 years in a hurry.
OK, maybe glass is too harsh; what about fiberglass? LOL Sir Jenks, it’s hard for me to ignore the world of trouble that Cotto was in against a non-puncher like DeMarcus Corley – that’s the fight that really troubles me. That being said, he’s no bum, but like you I feel that he has far too many deficits in this fight. Regarding an early knockdown of Shane, I’d be surprised, based on the fact that Shane has only been down two times in the same fight (to the aforementioned Forrest; immediately after a vicious unintentional head butt I might add). Furthermore, that was a stylistic nightmare for Shane…any tall, rangy, physically-strong boxer will give Mosley fits…luckily for him, Cotto does not fit that bill. Hence, my prediction and yours as well.
You’re absolutely right my friend. Shane Mosley’s performance will show his skills are still sharp in this fight, but it will be dangerous for him. Because he will look tremendously good against Ctto, but it’s because Cotto’s style is made for him. But still, I don’t think he has what it takes to beat Floyd Mayweather, the real one who I believe Mosley is thinking about.
Why just the main event?
Will Santa Cruz upset?
Mosley will try an early knockout..
Rolly Polly Man I tend to agree with all of your assessment. Mayweather, however, probably realizes that Shane would give him hell though…his rare combination of physical strength, speed and power make him a tough out for anyone under 6 feet and 154 pounds.
Joe, I don’t know a ton about Santa Cruz but I think he may have a decent shot against the aging Casamayor, but my guess here is that the vet still has a little something left in his bag-o-tricks to earn a decision. I think Mosley may just do that too; I hope he doesn’t because this fight card is $50! lol I guess at least I get to see Victor Ortiz obliterate Carlos Maussa in a showcase fight for him.
I think we might be getting a little crazy here with the pro-Mosely chatter. Don’t get me wrong, I like Moseley in this fight as well. But I would not be the least bit surprised to see Cotto win … and convincingly. That’s the intrigue this fight has to offer, both men can win via stoppage or slug out a decision victory. That said, I am picking Moseley via majority decision in a highly entertaining bout.
Orlando, it’s not that I think this current version of Mosley is so great, it’s that styles make fights, and stylistically, it appears that Cotto is at a deficit in many departments. So it has more to do with how Mosley favorably matches up with Cotto, than folks acting as if Mosley is the latest iteration of Ray Robinson. Don’t misinterpret the “love.”
I’m predicting a surprisingly one sided affair ending with a stoppage of Cotto sometime.
Mosley has only ever lost to tall guys with longer jabs who favoured a stick n move game from a circumspect defence. (Vernon Forrest)
He has NEVER lost to a guy with less reach to him. His power boxing style just loves guys like Cotto. Cotto won’t bring anything new in this fight, he will do what he always does and get stopped, I think…
I tend to agree with you Joe. Your reach point is particular interesting and a fact that very few are pointing out. I think some of the reason for not acknowledging this point more is the fact that many think Shane will fight more “in range,” in an attempt to inflict serious damage on Cotto, i.e. early. But the fact remains that Mosley has options in this fight, many more than he is typically used to. My three major concerns with my prediction are: 1) Shane has actually struggled in recent years with agressive, lesser talents at 147 (Estrada, Cruz) and 2) his last KO at 147 was against Adrian Stone over six years ago, and 3) he could get old tonight.
Nonetheless, I am still sticking with my pick, Shane by 10th round TKO, and it could end earier.
Take that to the bank,you people still do not understand the power that Cotto has on his punches it slowed down Mosley for a few rounds enough for him to win the fight and to be honest till round 9 Mosley was a little confuse about what to do with cotto because he hit cotto with all he got and did nothing to cotto…..
Au contraier Mike, I actually think that Cotto’s underrated boxing skills won him this fight. Actually, Shane MORE than held his own in the power, body-punching and strength department, even to the point where Cotto was backing up for the remaining 2-3 rounds (no matter what he says about “being ahead,” Cotto NEVER backs up unless he’s hurt or tired.). That being said, he eked out the victory by doing fairly well in a round or two, even while backing up. I was more impressed with Cotto’s sly counter-punching and shockingly improved overall defense…THOSE were the difference.
So you are saying that Cotto won with underrated skills…Pls ask Mosley he will be more honest than you.Cotto prepare very well for this fight and he was in the fight with Mosley and took him by surprise I do not think Mosley can be beat with underrated skills….
I am saying that Cotto won because he was able to do a look of the subtle things, like jab and move, in addition to his power (which we all know already)…but his POWER was absorbed by Shane and Shane actually had more energy than Miguel down the stretch…that is just my observation. Despite this fact, I still think Cotto earned the win. It was a close fight, and he did just enough to win.
BTW, Shane agrees with both of us on Cotto’s power AND boxing skills (if you look at the post-fight interview, Shane admits he was surprised by Cotto’s decent boxing skills)…and that’s what I am basically saying too.
Cotto was the best option from the beginning so it was really no surprise he won. Younger, underestimated, lethal body blows… Obviously Mosley didn’t knew what was coming. Even Tito Trinidad or Zab Judah could beat old Mosley. I mean Mosley’s good years are already over. He’s 38 he should retire before compromising more his entrance to the Hall of Fame.
Red Stripe, his ticket is already punched for the HOF. Regarding Cotto being a “gimme,” I have to disagree with you (also, why the fight was really close…it’s not like he blew the “old” Mosley outta there, ya know?). Cotto was a good up-and-coming fighter leading up to this fight (as his best win was against an inconsistent Zab Judah), but he is now a very good/great fighter based on beating a vet with the credentials of Shane. Thanks for writing…look forward to your future comments.
Let me weigh in on this mad late – seeing as I was too cheap to buy the fight and just saw it this weekend.
I have to say that I was a little disappointed in Shane during the last 2/3 of the fight. In the beginning, it was an exciting slugfest during which both men swung for the fences with power shots. Around the 4th or 5th round, Shane began boxing and moving from the outside more and avoided danger. It was obvious that he wasn’t able to, or didn’t have the heart to put his body on the line and take the risk to win.
In the sport of boxing, you gain fame by being a blood and guts warrior. For Shane, whether he’s too old, too wealthy, or has just lost the hunger – whatever the reason, he just didn’t risk enough to win.
For Cotto’s part, he was a stalwart and provided non-stop pressure, but I didn’t see him take control or break down his opponent. If this were a sport like football or basketball, I’d say he’s like a team that plays good defense and doesn’t make turnovers, but he always wins in a low scoring afair. I’m not sure how popular Cotto will ever become due to his style.
But give credit where it’s due – Cotto won an undisputed victory over a hall of fame caliber fighter who although diminished, was still dangerous.
Interesting assessment Sir Jenks…I thought Shane actually was very aggressive late when it appeared that Cotto was fading. I also think Cotto has a very crowd-pleasing aggressive style…but it may ultimately be his undoing. Until the, which may be awhile, the dude is the legit #2 threat to Mayweather’s supremacy at 147 pounds. If the latter beats Hatton, that is a great potential fight.