When Joe Calzaghe (43-0, 32 KOs) and Mikkel Kessler (39-0, 29 KOs) meet for the super middleweight title this Saturday from Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, Wales, HBO will be kicking off its first of three mega-fights to close out the year (Mosley-Cotto and Mayweather-Hatton are the other two). Of all three fights, this prediction is the hardest to make. However, I will not deviate from my blueprint on picking successful boxing match winners.
COMPETITION
As boxing’s current longest-reigning world champion, Joe Calzaghe has faced and defeated various boxing styles, besting current and former super middleweight contenders like Robin Reid (26-1-1*), Byron Mitchell (25-2-1*) and Jeff Lacy (21-0*). The undefeated Mikkel Kessler’s record is not too shabby either, as he has vanquished formidable foes like Anthony Mundine (23-2*), Markus Beyer (34-2-1*) and Librado Andrade (24-0*).
ADVANTAGE CALZAGHE
Calzaghe’s overall body of work, highlighted by his career-defining victory over Jeff Lacy, give him the edge here.
DEFENSE
The fact that both fighters are undefeated, have never been seriously hurt in the ring, and have not had a controversial victory on their record, it’s quite clear that both have strong defenses and chins. Being the natural counter-puncher, Calzaghe focuses on defense first. Being the natural aggressor, Kessler focuses on offense first – overwhelming opponents with pressure and power punching. In Kessler’s world, a good offense is the best defense.
ADVANTAGE CALZAGHE
Fighting many big punchers (Kessler being the latest), Calzaghe has generally dodged (excluding a flash knockdown he suffered at the hands of Byron Mitchell in 2003) the biggest bombs launched his way. Kessler is well-schooled, keeps his hands high and has never been knocked down, but the advantage still goes to Calzaghe.
FOOTWORK
This bout is very difficult to predict because both fighters are boxer-punchers, with differing styles. One (Calzaghe) uses his fleet feet to manipulate distance and create counter-punching opportunities, while the other (Kessler) primarily uses his feet to cut off the ring and plant to let off his power punches.
CLEAR ADVANTAGE CALZAGHE
Unless Calzaghe gets old overnight and "loses his legs" (which is a possibility), he will clearly have the footwork advantage.
HAND SPEED
One need not look any further than Joe Calzaghe’s domination of knockout artist Jeff Lacy over a year ago to know what kind of hand speed that he brings to the table. That fistic masterpiece was the perfect storm of defense, foot speed, hand speed and ring generalship. Kessler has deceptively fast hands, but his calling cards are his physical strength, power and relentlessness.
CLEAR ADVANTAGE CALZAGHE
While Kessler is a very competent boxer-puncher, he’ll be facing the fastest opponent that he has ever faced, and one of the fastest in boxing in Calzaghe.
LOCALE
Calzaghe, known as "The Pride of Wales," will be fighting on his home turf while Kessler will be fighting in hostile territory. We all know the effect that this can have on the judges, especially in a fight that goes to the scorecards.
CLEAR ADVANTAGE CALZAGHE
Sometimes fighting in front of one’s hometown or native land, can lead a boxer to: try and impress his fans, fight more aggressively than originally planned, and open themselves up to be knocked out (e.g. Cory Spinks’s hometown KO loss to Zab Judah in St. Louis, Missouri). However, Calzaghe is too smart for that. He has successfully gone the distance numerous times at home, and is not worried about how he wins, but simply that he wins. Realizing this, Kessler will likely press the action even more than usual, which is right up his alley anyway.
It looks like a Calzaghe blowout in the making? On paper it sure looks like it, but Michael Jordan once said that paper doesn’t win championships. In my mind, Calzaghe should win, based on the advantages I have outlined above, but one cannot discount Kessler’s determination, punching power and will. I sure do not; but I am still picking Joe Calzaghe to unify the super middleweight title over twelve competitive rounds. Someone’s "0" has to got go, and the guess here is that it will be Kessler’s.
*Individual boxer’s record at the time of meeting Calzaghe and Kessler.
If I’m being totally honest with myself, I don’t really know enough about either of these fighters to be able to accurately predict this fight. In much the same way as the long run of Bernard Hopkins, I think you have to give a champ like Calzaghe the benefit of the doubt until someone really steps up and takes his crown away or he has a weak performance. So based on that, I’m predicting Calzaghe in a decision. Kessler would have to knock Calzaghe out cold in order to win this thing because I don’t see him getting a decision. As mentioned before, Calzaghe has shown himself to be adept at staying out of trouble and has the kind of handspeed that causes persistent defensive problems for his foes.
You seem to have totally switched the defence ideology of the two. It’s Calzaghe who is offence first, defence second, where as Kessler rarely takes risks to press forward a KO, even when the opportune moment arises.
Joe often attacks with little regard of his well-being, which sometimes results in being hit flush. However his agression usually prevails. Kessler rather reset than keep on thrashing his opponent. You won’t catch Kessler doing anything stupid, whereas Calzaghe often gets lured into a brawl.
So defence: Kessler-JC 1-0.
Advantage Calzaghe: This doesn’t make any sense. It’s true that Joe has met some big punchers, but he has also been decked twice(Salem and Mitchell), Kessler has never been down.
Footwork: Both have great footwork which supports their given style. JC moves in and out very fast, and it supports his aggressive style. Kessler uses his to control the center ring and for his great sense of distance on his shots.
I call it a draw there.
Locale: As you lay out, there are positives and negatives for each fighter. I go with you and say that Calzaghe gains the most of the locale.
Calzaghe-Kessler 1½-1½.
Sir Jenks, I respect your honest AND your prediction, since it’s in line with mine.
DanePugilist, you think Calzaghe is an aggressor, or more importantly, will be one in this match? Based on Kessler’s power and the fact that he’s fighting at home, I look for Calzaghe to use his wheels a great deal (like he did against Lacy). Defense – advantage Kessler, based on what? What great punchers has he faced? Andrade? I am not impressed with that guy too much…a knockout artist of guys who can’t fight. Also, name the brawls that Calzaghe has engaged him that have ever caused him to be seriously hurt…not flash knockdowns? We’ll agree to disagree on this one…Saturday will provide the answers…I hope to hear from you then; I’ll be here. 🙂
You make a good point in that JC can be lured into a brawl, but I still stand by my prediction based on JC’s reign as champ. Again, I don’t have a long history of watching these guys to base my opinion on but I feel like JC has the experience and wits to cope with a difficult situation. In the Lacy fight for example, he knew how use just enough agression to look impressive and win rounds, but was still smart enough and quick enough defensively to stay away from Lacy’s power.
Based on the clips I’ve seen of Kessler, he looks like a solid contender but I’m not seeing that spark that it’s going to take to win this one. For example, in Pavlik/Taylor I called it for Pavlik based on the fact that he seemed strong and hungry enough to do what he had to do to beat Taylor.
So with Kessler, what’s he going to bring to the table that will help him win? If it’s close he’s not going to get the decision. Given his style and JC’s speed, a KO doesn’t seem likely, so how is Kessler going to win?
Based on that, and based on the fact that JC is a long reigning champ, I have to default to JC winning this.
YesSir Jenks!
@Dawson – Agression is Calzaghe main thing. It has served him well, using his speed and holding to fire off more shots. It’s safe to say that Calzaghe thinks that Kessler is his inferior in the pocket. Kessler almost always avoids fighting in the pocket, since anything can happen there.
Defence based on what? Based on the fact that Calzaghe doesn’t protect himself, when on offense. Offense is his defence; Compare ie Brewer and Mitchell fights – both stunning him and hitting him flush, when he attacks. Mitchell decked, only for Joe to show his fighter heart and retaliate. Kessler always protects himself first, working behind the great jab, throwing one-twos, left hook and straight right. If you don’t think Andrade has great power, then look at his KO-ratio(and his height and reach). Kessler doesn’t take unnecessary risks – and sometimes that is a “flaw”.
@Jenks: Calzaghe is like hot and cold – sometimes he looks great, other times – not so great. Lacy was reduced to a punching bag, because he failed to alter his initial plan – to use his strength to battle JC down. Since JC was much faster than Lacy, he moved in and out, landing at will on the hapless Lacy. Lacy does not possess great speed – merely raw power and a great left hook.
Kessler, however, despite him being strong, he doesn’t use strength to bully his opponents. He operates behind the jab, using precision and timing to counter the aggressor. His percentage of landing shots are one of the highest ever in the SMW, check ie HBO compubox stats for reference. Precision counters speed, and Kessler is pretty fast himself. He has great ability in predicting his opponents next move.
With all this being said, this fight is almost impossible to predict the outcome. It’s all about who has the working gameplan, and who is able to adjust things when it doesn’t work. These two are boxing elites – and are great at what they do.
May the best man win.
Andrade landed 10% of 924 shots… thats pretty good defence.
Nice breakdown DanePugilist – I see that you have Kessler down. Historically, I’ll have to agree with you re: Kessler’s offensive, but measured, attack. However, in this fight, I feel that he’ll be forced to take more risks – fighting a faster man and what amounts to a “road” fight. I think these factors will give Calzaghe more opportunities to land his combos. But I think we can all agree, that we are in for a high-stakes, chess-match of sorts. I just hope the fight is high on action and drama, despite its possibility of being a tactical battle.
Thanks Dawson.
Yes, Kessler may be forced to take more risks than he usually likes to do. Afterall, he has rarely lost rounds, but in this one – he could lose a fair share. If that happens, he might start taking chances and start trading in the pocket. Unless Kesslers power stuns Calzaghe too much, this will be where Calzaghe wants the fight to be, and he will probably win it, as evident in most of his fights where his opponents chose to brawl with him and trade in-close.
As a start, Kessler will just try to control the center, and avoid the ropes.
Yes, we can all agree this is a chessmatch of the highest order. I can almost guarentee that despite it being a possible tactical warfare, it will be highpacked action for the opening bell till the last.
My prediction Kessler by TKO 9th.
I will obviously be tuning in…we’ll continue this in the aftermath of the fight.
As is the case in so many other areas of our society today, we see the effects of globalization in the sport of boxing. This is the first time I’ve truly been on the edge of my seat watching two fighters that don’t hail from the western hemisphere. So I hold this up as an example of what could potentially happen to the heavyweight division if more talented fighters enter the ring from other areas of the world.
With that said, I have to first congratulate Kessler on an outstanding performance. I was ready to see a very measured and technical performance from a rather robotic performer. Instead, Kessler showed true grit in never relenting to the pressure provided by Calzaghe.
Of course, we all have to sing the praises of Calzaghe for providing us with one of the best fights of the year. This guy seems to really have a sense of theater and knows how to entertain as well as excel at his sport. I think the reason why we love boxing so much is that it’s one of the few sports where guts and determination really make a difference. In a sport like basketball for example, you can be as determined as you want to be, but if your jumper isn’t falling then you lose. But in boxing, and in Calzaghe, we see that the heart of a champion really makes a difference. This victory was less as a result of a tactical error on Kessler’s part and more as a result of a unique and special athlete in the form of Calzaghe.
What a performance!
And thus ends my Larry Merchant impersonation…
warrior
I couldn’t agree with you more SirJenks. For years, many of us (present company included), had UNDERrated “Super” Joe Calzaghe….no more! That was a bout full of mild drama, HIGHLY skilled fighters, and a great, energetic venue to boot. Boxing is truly a global sport, and I was glad to watch it, and also predict the outcome correctly. 😉
JOE CALZAGHE WINS!
We have all knew that!
44th Win!
Good night fellows!
As I predicted! 🙂